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Pragmatic hypotheses in the evolution of Science

Quantification under prior probability shift: the ratio estimator and its extensions

The quantification problem consists of determining the prevalence of a given label in a target population. However, one often has access to the labels in a sample from the training population but not in the target population. A common assumption in …

Machine learning para análises preditivas em saúde: exemplo de aplicação para predizer óbito em idosos de São Paulo

Agnostic tests can control the type I and type II errors simultaneously

Despite its common practice, statistical hypothesis testing presents challenges in interpretation. For instance, in the standard frequentist framework there is no control of the type II error. As a result, the non-rejection of the null hypothesis H0 …

Avian haemosporidians in the cattle egret (Bubulcus ibis) from central-western and southern Africa: high diversity and prevalence

Comparing probabilistic predictive models applied to football

We propose two Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet models to predict the final outcome of football (soccer) matches and compare them to three well-known models regarding their predictive power. All the models predicted the full-time results of 1710 …

Comparing two populations using Bayesian Fourier series density estimation

Considerations for monitoring population trends of colonial waterbirds using the effective number of breeders and census estimates

Detecting trends in population size fluctuations is a major focus in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Populations of colonial waterbirds have been monitored using demographic approaches to determine annual census size (Na). We propose …

Hypertension is associated with frailty in older adults

The association between hypertension and frailty syndrome in older adults remains unclear. There is scarce information about the prevalence of hypertension among frail elderly patients or on its relationship with frailty. Up to one quarter of frail …

Monitoramento online da dengue: usando o Google para predizer epidemias.